Indian share markets ended their day on a strong note today after BJP led NDA government got clear mandate in the Lok Sabha Election 2019.
Asian stock markets finished on a mixed note as of the most recent closing prices. The Hang Seng stood up by 0.3% and the Nikkei was trading down by 0.2%, while the Shanghai Composite was trading flat.
European markets were trading on a positive note. The FTSE 100 was up by 0.7%. The DAX was trading up by 0.9%, while the CAC 40 was up by 1%.
The rupee was trading at 69.60 to the US$ at the time of writing.
Clearly, the BJP-led NDA victory in the Lok Sabha Elections 2019 has fired up the markets.
But one should also note that near term reactions to elections aside, stock markets in the longer run have been influenced by the Indian economy and growth in corporate earnings.
Indeed, despite the Congress win in 2004 (something not factored in by the markets), the Sensex has been on a major bull run since then.
This, during years when both the UPA and the NDA have been in power.
In the Long Run, Elections Don’t Influence the Stock Market
Despite governments changing hands in 2004 and 2014, the Sensex gave returns of 44% and 13% in a year respectively.
Even in 2009, when the same government retained power, Sensex was up by 18% in a year.
So, do you think there are good times ahead for Indian stock markets?
Also, what does the Modi win mean for the market going forward? And how can one play markets post elections?
Tanushree Banerjee answers these questions in one of the latest editions of The 5 Minute WrapUp. You can read the entire article here: My Top 7 Stocks to Buy as Modi Returns to Power
Meanwhile, look out for the stocks that will rise fast when the tide of the market turns up.
GIC share price was in focus today as the company reported a 19.7% fall in standalone net profit at Rs 6 billion in the last quarter of the fiscal ended March 2019. Gross premium collection for General Insurance Corporation of India during March quarter stood at Rs 80.8 billion as against Rs 85.2 billion in the year-ago period.
On a consolidated basis, the company’s net profit for the year ended March 31, 2019 fell 31.2% to Rs 22.2 billion from Rs 32.3 billion in the previous year. This was seen mainly due to increase in tax provisions on account of change in law.
Investment income for the fiscal increased 18.7% to Rs 64 billion.
Commissions, however, reduced to 15.7% on net premium from 16.9% in 2017-18.
The board of the company has recommended a dividend of Rs 6.75 per equity share for the financial year 2018-19, subject to approval of the members at the ensuing 47th annual general meeting.
Apart from the above, market participants were also tracking Ashok Leyland share price, JSW Steel share price, and Bata India share price as these companies announced their March quarter (Q4FY19) results today.
In the news from commodity space, crude oil was witnessing buying interest today. Oil prices jumped more than 1% today amid OPEC supply cuts and Middle East tensions.
However, crude oil didn’t fully recoup losses seen earlier in the week. These losses were seen on the back of concerns over economic slowdown and rising inventories.
Note that crude oil prices witnessed sharp correction this week amid surging US crude inventories and weak demand from refineries. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said US crude oil inventories rose last week, hitting their highest levels since July 2017, due to weak refinery demand.
Commercial US crude inventories rose by 4.7 million barrels in the week ended May 17, to 476.8 million barrels.
US crude oil production also rose by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 12.2 million bpd, putting output near its record of 12.3 million bpd reached late last month.
Also, speaking of crude oil, within the oil industry, there are signs of a further rise in output from the United States, where crude production has already surged by more than 2 million barrels per day (bpd) since early 2018.
That has made the United States the world’s biggest producer ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Also, crude oil prices have quietly creeped up this year.
Oil prices have jumped as much as 3.2% to their highest level since late 2018.
As you know, rising crude oil prices have a big impact on the Indian economy as it imports over 70% of its energy needs.
Rise in crude oil increases input costs for dependent firms. It also means rising inflation. Rising inflation means rising interest rates.
It also puts pressure on the government to cut excise duty, thereby impacting its revenues. We have already seen that happening.
Research Analyst, Richa Agarwal believes that this has the potential to bring down sentiments in the domestic markets. She further believes that, if oil prices continue their upward march in a tight global environment, a broader correction in the sentiment fueled domestic market cannot be ruled out.
To know more on what moved the Indian stock markets today, you can check out the most recent share market updates here.
This article (Sensex Ends 623 Points Higher; Realty and Telecom Stocks Witness Buying) is authored by Equitymaster.